Delectability
What percentage of people would not vote for a “generally well-qualified” person nominated from their own party if they were a socialist?
How accurate was your prediction?
What is the story the data tells?
Why do you think that is?
What is one consequence of this?
How much do you think personal characteristics and traits really matter in an election?
Why do you think Republicans have a higher dislike of all of the characteristics in this chart than Democrats?
What would be a characteristic not listed in the chart that Democrats would oppose more than Republicans?
If socialists are so unpopular (even with Democrats) then why did the Democrats almost nominate a socialist (Bernie Sanders) to be their 2016 candidate for president?
Had Bernie (Socialist) Sanders run against Donald Trump in 2016 would Sanders have won the popular or the electoral vote?
Based on the data in the table create the most unelectable candidate possible using a combination of characteristics from the chart. Be creative and give us a little background and biography for the super unelectable candidate you create.
Now do the opposite, and based on this chart make the most electable candidate you can imagine.
Which of the characteristics on the chart above does Donald Trump share?
Based only on the data available in the chart above, explain why Donald J. Trump won the 2016 presidential election.
Explain why the average American prefers African American candidates to female candidates?
Explain why Republicans are three times less likely than Democrats to vote for a female.
It has been said that the way we think and talk about politics often overemphasizes candidates and campaign strategies and underplays what political scientists refer to as the fundamentals — factors like the state of the economy and which party controls the White House at the time of the election. One view of the 2008 election, for example, is that Barack Obama ran a brilliant campaign that overcame America’s racial divides. Another view is that once Obama won the Democratic nomination he was virtually a lock — the GOP was trying to win a third straight presidential term, which is generally hard to do, and there was a stock market crash a few weeks before the election. Do you agree that fundamentals are more important than candidates and campaigns?
What will the fundamentals look like in the 2020 presidential election?
Learning Extension
Check out this cool article from 538 about electability.
Action Extension
Share your unelectable candidate in class or online. Have an in-class election between the three most unelectable candidates and share the winner.
