Incumbency Advantage
As recently as 20 years ago, holding office added an average of 8 percentage points to a candidate’s electoral margin. How much was incumbency worth in the 2018 election?
How accurate was your prediction?
How surprising was this data?
What is the story this data tells?
Incumbency advantage has decreased over the past 20 years. Make a claim to explain why that is.
What is one consequence of the shrinking incumbency advantage?
Is this good news?
How do you think that this shrinking incumbency advantage will impact how incumbents govern?
What is the connection between the unpopularity of congress and incumbency advantage?
Incumbency is actually a disadvantage for Senators in big states like Texas or California. Why do you think this is?
Existing research shows that says being an appointed incumbent isn’t nearly as powerful as being an elected one. Why do you think that is?
If you were an incumbent in office and you wanted to make election rules to help increase incumbency advantage, what rules would you make?
Despite the fact that he could have ruled for life, Gorge Washington retired after two terms as president. In his farewell address, Washington wrote, “The period for a new election of a citizen to administer the executive government of the United States being not far distant, and the time actually arrived when your thoughts must be employed in designating the person who is to be clothed with that important trust, it appears to me proper, especially as it may conduce to a more distinct expression of the public voice, that I should now apprise you of the resolution I have formed, to decline being considered among the number of those out of whom a choice is to be made.” What would Washington say about incumbents who stay in office for 4 or 5 terms?
Visual Extension which has absolutely nothing at all to do with today’s class starter.
The higher the number, the stronger the correlation.
The higher the number, the stronger the correlation.
